Nigeria’s air transport sector is heading into the busy Christmas season with severe disruptions looming, as local airlines battle an unprecedented fleet depletion and poor airport navigational support.
Industry experts warn that passengers may experience one of the most chaotic holiday travel periods in decades due to worsening aircraft shortages and harmattan-induced visibility challenges.
Fresh findings show that the combined active fleet of the country’s 15 scheduled airlines has dropped to just 38 serviceable aircraft, down from 44 a year ago and 107 about four years ago—representing a staggering 64.5% capacity decline.
The situation is compounded by deteriorating highways, pushing more Nigerians toward air travel just as the sector struggles the most.
Despite Federal Government investments in Category II and III Instrument Landing Systems (ILS), many of the upgraded systems remain unreliable due to intermittent calibration issues and power failures.
Some airports have even had their ILS downgraded, forcing airlines to rely on lower-category or visual approaches, raising the likelihood of delays and cancellations during the harmattan season.
NCAA data show that in 2024 alone, 38,061 of 84,902 flights were delayed, while 1,320 were cancelled, with December and January typically recording the worst disruptions.
Industry players say local airlines have been unable to upgrade onboard equipment needed for improved low-visibility operations, further limiting their ability to safely operate during adverse weather.
Aero Contractors CFO Charles Grant confirmed the downturn, noting that many airlines now operate with only four to six active aircraft due to harsh economics.
He warned that the system “punishes scale and availability,” resulting in chronic delays, cancellations, poor customer experience and diminishing public confidence—problems that will intensify over the coming festive season unless urgent reforms are made.