Nigeria’s urban population is projected to hit about 264 million by 2050, as more than 140 million additional people move into cities over the next 25 years, according to a World Bank report.
The study notes that nearly 70 per cent of Nigerians will live in urban areas by mid-century, placing cities at the heart of the country’s economic future, even as almost half of today’s urban residents live in slums.
Despite the pressures of rapid urbanisation, the World Bank projects that Nigeria’s economy will grow by 4.4 per cent in 2026 and 2027, building on an estimated 4.2 per cent expansion in 2025.
This outlook positions Africa’s largest economy among the fastest-growing in Sub-Saharan Africa at a time when global growth is expected to slow to 2.6 per cent.
The report, titled Multi-sector Analytical Review and Pathway to Transformation, highlights that Nigeria’s urban population has expanded dramatically—from fewer than seven million in 1960 to over 128 million in 2024.
Based on assessments of 11 major cities, including Lagos, Abuja, Kano, Ibadan and Maiduguri, the World Bank warns that unplanned growth, service gaps and unchecked urban sprawl are undermining livability and economic potential.
Economically, the Bank attributes Nigeria’s improving outlook to sustained macroeconomic reforms, a resilient services sector, and the country’s transition into a net exporter of refined petroleum products.
Growth is being driven largely by finance and ICT, alongside modest gains in agriculture, while recent policy steps—such as fuel subsidy removal, exchange rate unification and tighter monetary policy—have helped stabilise long-standing imbalances.
However, the World Bank cautions that risks remain. Inflation is still high, though expected to ease gradually, and Nigeria remains vulnerable to fluctuations in global oil prices, projected to fall from $69 per barrel in 2025 to $60 in 2026.
For millions of Nigerians migrating to cities in search of opportunity, the report stresses that bold urban planning and sustained reforms will determine whether rapid growth translates into shared prosperity.