Over 40.2 million barrels of crude oil allocated to local refiners in Nigeria remained untapped in the first quarter of 2026, highlighting deep cracks in the country’s push for energy self-sufficiency.
According to the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) and the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), although producers offered 68.7 million barrels and 61.9 million barrels were mandated under the Petroleum Industry Act, only 28.5 million barrels were actually taken—just 36 per cent—due largely to pricing disagreements between oil producers and domestic refiners.
Regulators say the system operates on a “willing buyer, willing seller” basis, meaning refiners like Dangote and others are not compelled to purchase crude at offered rates.
This pricing gap has stalled supply, leaving millions of barrels unused despite Nigeria’s urgent need to boost local refining, reduce fuel imports, and stabilize energy costs for citizens already burdened by high living expenses.
Compounding concerns, the Chartered Risk Management Institute of Nigeria (CRMI) has warned that Nigeria’s oil-dependent economy faces fresh uncertainty following the United Arab Emirates’ decision to exit OPEC after nearly six decades.
The institute cautioned that the move could destabilize global oil prices, weaken supply coordination, and trigger wider geopolitical and market disruptions—posing risks to government revenues and economic planning.
At home, controversy is also brewing over the Federal Government’s decision to partner with Chinese firms to rehabilitate and manage the Port Harcourt and Warri refineries.
While some experts считают it a necessary step to revive dormant assets and create jobs, others argue it could repeat past failures, especially after billions of naira spent on previous rehabilitation efforts yielded little lasting impact.
For refinery workers and industry stakeholders, the stakes are deeply personal.
While some welcome the Chinese partnership with cautious optimism, others fear job losses and continued lack of transparency.
Analysts are now calling for full disclosure of the agreement’s terms, warning that without accountability and a clear strategy, Nigeria risks wasting resources while its refining ambitions—and the livelihoods tied to them—remain uncertain.