As the countdown to the 2027 presidential election begins, though still far according to warnings by Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC, political calculations and permutations within Northern Nigeria have intensified, with the region facing a crucial decision on which candidate to support in the evolving political landscape.
At the centre of the conversation political watchers see five major figures: incumbent President Bola Ahmed Tinubu; former Vice President Atiku Abubakar; former President Goodluck Jonathan; former Anambra State Governor, Peter Obi; and former Rivers State Governor, Rotimi Amaechi.
While several northerners have expressed interest in the presidency, key stakeholders are concerned that a northern successor to President Tinubu may undermine the unwritten North-South power rotation agreement, an arrangement many believe is vital to national stability.
Some prominent northerners reportedly eyeing the top seat include Atiku Abubakar, former Kano Governor Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, Bauchi State Governor Bala Mohammed, and Gbenga Olawepo-Hashim. However, amid concerns about political balance, attention is shifting towards a Southern candidate—specifically one who could serve a single term and hand power back to the North by 2031.
This political strategy has placed former President Goodluck Jonathan and President Tinubu in the spotlight, as both are constitutionally limited to a single term if elected again. On the other hand, Peter Obi and Rotimi Amaechi, though pledging to serve only one term, remain eligible for two if elected—raising questions among northern stakeholders about the credibility of such commitments.
President Tinubu: A Divided Northern Base
President Tinubu, who won the 2023 election with over 8.7 million votes, more than five million of which came from the North, continues to enjoy support from northern political allies and key government figures. However, dissent is growing among others in the region, who accuse his administration of marginalising the North in federal appointments and infrastructure projects.
In response, the federal government recently held a consultative meeting in Kaduna, led by Secretary to the Government of the Federation, Senator George Akume, and Minister of Budget and Planning, Atiku Bagudu, to reassure the region of the administration’s commitment. With 460 days left until the 2027 polls, analysts say Tinubu’s actions in the coming months will determine whether he retains the North’s support.
Goodluck Jonathan: A Possible Comeback?
Former President Jonathan is reportedly gaining traction among influential northern politicians who believe he represents the most viable alternative to Tinubu. Despite questions surrounding his eligibility due to constitutional amendments, discussions are ongoing within the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and other political circles to draft him into the race.
Jonathan’s peaceful concession after the 2015 election, his perceived humility, and his balance performance in office have endeared him to many across party lines. PDP officials have confirmed that some party leaders have approached him to consider running again.
Obi and Amaechi: Fresh Faces with One-Term Promises
Peter Obi, who made significant inroads in 2023 as the Labour Party candidate, remains active in public discourse and philanthropy. Though his party is currently factionalised, he is aligned with a broader coalition under the African Democratic Congress (ADC), alongside Atiku, El-Rufai, Tambuwal, and Amaechi.
Rotimi Amaechi, who emerged second behind Tinubu in the APC primaries, also retains considerable northern goodwill, having executed major transport projects in the region, including the Kano-Maradi rail line and the Transport University in Daura.
Both Obi and Amaechi have pledged to serve only one term, but scepticism remains among northern stakeholders, who prefer candidates constitutionally limited to a single term to ensure power returns to the North in 2031.
Atiku Abubakar: Veteran in the Race Again?
Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar has officially joined the ADC after exiting the PDP. Atiku, who has contested the presidency multiple times since 1993, is reportedly willing to run again in 2027 on a one-term basis. Although he dominated the North-East in 2023, he failed to secure the North-West and North-Central, leaving analysts unsure of his chances in future elections.
His alignment with the ADC and involvement in ongoing coalition talks could either strengthen his base or split support among key allies.
As 2027 approaches, Northern Nigeria stands at a political crossroads. With multiple candidates vying for its support, each with different strengths, promises, and challenges, the decisions made in the months ahead will not only shape the outcome of the election but could also determine the future of the country’s fragile power-sharing balance.
Radio Nigeria will continue to monitor developments and updates as the race to 2027 unfolds with each ticking clock.