China’s birth rate has fallen to its lowest level on record, as fresh government figures confirm that the country’s population continued to shrink for the fourth consecutive year.
Official data released on Monday show that China’s birth rate dropped to 5.63 births per 1,000 people in 2025, the lowest since the founding of the People’s Republic in 1949.
At the same time, the death rate rose to 8.04 per 1,000 people, its highest level since 1968.
As a result, China’s population declined by about 3.39 million to roughly 1.4 billion by the end of 2025, marking a faster rate of decline compared with the previous year.
The development comes despite sustained efforts by the Chinese government to reverse the trend.
Authorities have scrapped the former one-child policy, first replacing it with a two-child limit in 2016 and later expanding it to allow up to three children per couple in 2021.
In recent years, Beijing has also introduced financial incentives, including payments of about 3,600 yuan for each child under the age of three.
Some provinces have gone further by offering additional cash bonuses and longer maternity leave.
However, certain measures have attracted criticism.
A newly introduced tax on contraceptives has raised concerns among health experts over the risks of unintended pregnancies and the spread of HIV.
China’s fertility rate remains among the lowest globally, at around one child per woman, well below the replacement level of 2.1.
Other Asian economies such as South Korea, Singapore and Taiwan are facing similar demographic challenges.
Analysts say the high cost of raising children is a major deterrent.
A recent study by a Beijing-based population research institute ranked China among the most expensive countries in which to raise a family.
Beyond financial pressures, many young Chinese cite lifestyle choices, career demands and the desire for personal freedom as reasons for delaying or avoiding parenthood.
United Nations projections suggest China’s population will continue to fall sharply, with estimates indicating it could lose more than half of its current population by the end of the century.
Experts warn that a shrinking population poses serious economic and social risks for the world’s second-largest economy, including a declining workforce, weak consumer demand and increasing pressure on social welfare systems.
The challenge is compounded by rapid ageing, as millions of elderly citizens rely on pensions and state support.
Reports from China’s social science institutions indicate that pension funds are under growing strain, raising concerns about the country’s ability to care for an expanding elderly population in the years ahead.